Friday, January 30, 2009

Week 4 Jan 25 2009 Fed Week at the Forex


  • Remaining shorts from previous week have been covered today. It's possibly a little too early to exit, but we certainly are entering key support.  We're almost where we left off from the beginning of the week with the USD seesawing from bear to bull in a span of 5 days.
  • It remains to be see whether momentum through the weekend and early next week can breach approaching support.
  • This month can be summed up as a continuation of the bear move that started last month. The USD has stayed strong against most of the majors because the uncertainty that the markets can't and may not shake off in the near term.
  • Though not 100% correlated, the equity markets and sentiment will determine when we have a true reversal with EURUSD. For now it's selling the rallies, and if we do have a pop Long, it's taking the profits as soon as we have a bearish signal.  Overall, a great profitable month, 11 more to go. 

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Euro Week 2 Jan 18 2009


  • Our dead cat bounce from last Friday appeared to show it self this week.  The Eurozone and UK are reeling from horrible banking news, specifically RBS of Scotland.
  • The pressure on most European currencies continues.  AO has navigated the shorts well, and we'll cover when the we see the first color change. 
  • Pay particular attention by the failed bounce confirmed with the up fractal, and the confirmations of AO. 
  • There could be continued pressure on the Eur for the rest of this week. My concern is the momentum of the drop.
  • Some correction is due, unlike last week, I will not hesitate to take some lots off the table. We recovered a large part of last years bad trades and we're off to a terrific start for 2009.
  • Updated: covered a very small short position late afternoon, but reentered with similar size, so new entry is currently profitting.
  • We've clearly popped through the 1.3000 handle finally with authority, 1.2900 is out and we expect some further drop this week if the miserable banking news continues.
  • I would expect significant consolidation approaching 1.2500's and if this pans out, I'll unwind a good amount of positions, right now it's bad news, and great momentum, and we're on course. 

Friday, January 9, 2009

Week 1 New Year 2009


  • The 2008 Year End Euro weakness was tested early this week. Geopolitical and fundamental conditions have tested the USD against most majors. Considerable weakness against the Pound.
  • Though there was volitility, overall sentiment was a weak USD.
  • The question this week was whether we'd get clues as to where the Dollar would begin the brand new trading year.
  • This was Non-Farm Payroll week. The expectations were low, if not disastorous from last months job figures. Slightly better than expected numbers slowed down the Dollar weakness from the past 3 days.
  • It is significant to see how our AO kept us short, despite a rather huge move upwards with Euro even on the 4HR charts. Thus our bias will remain short until a significant failure against next key support levels in the low 1.3000 handle. ainly th downward acceleration from last month has slowed. If/when we approach k
  • A slow lazy trading week, profitable, consistant though and on track to start the year. Short levels in the low 1.300's handle, we have to keep a close eye on momentum. Further weakness in this momentum and we'll scale our Euro shorts and play it safe.Expectations before next ECB meeting should keep downward pressure on Euro.