Week 1 Feb 2009 ECB & BOE Non Farm

• A news packed week where we saw good movement in the Pound and Cad. No surprise from the ECB and BOE with respect to rate cuts. Rates came in line with what was forecasted, however unlike the Pound, the Euro really floundered and did not take a dive as you may have expected.
• Not being a big fan of trading fundamentals, I think there are 2 important things I've observed. 1) The Euro is moving(though not perfectly) with equity markets. The uncertainty of the Stimulus shows on the charts. We didn't have a definitive outcome as to the details of this package, and as the Euro approached key support levels, the momentum fizzled. 2) Gold had a few days where it lost double digits, however at $900+/ounce, it is suprisingly resilient considering the Dollar has been strong.
• Getting back to the technicals, though my medium term bias is still bearish for the Euro, for the short term, at least early next week, there is some upside potential. The 1.2700 handle should have been taken out but held firm, as risk aversion subsides, we'll have a few good days with the Dow and Euro getting a pop upwards, then when reality sinks in and the feel good spending subsides, the Dow and Euro will tank again, great opportunity for selling this rally.
• For the week we are near break even, currently holding a small long position on the Euro, I will hold this position until I get a short signal, which usually happens on the 3rd, 4th or 5th day.
• Overall a lot of news, some missed opportunity on the Pound and Cad, and a very uneventfull day of waffling for the Euro.